Your logic is correct.
If you have 1 website with 2000 hits per day and 100 websites with 20 hits for each per day (100 * 20 = 2000 hits), this is moreless the same.
JMS add a small overhead for the "super switch" but this overhead can be considered as small when you have a small number of websites (less than 1,000 websites).
Over 1,000 websites, you need to use the JMS "letter tree" settings and in case of expected of very large number of websites, consider to create a specific hardcoded JMS template rule in a "user exit" to speedup the "super switch" decisions.
We think that a single joomla installation can effectivelly help in this case.
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